March 2028. Russian troops capture the small Estonian town of Narva and the island of Hiiumaa in the Baltic Sea. After a victorious peace deal in Ukraine, Putin’s long-mooted encroachment into the Baltic states has begun. What if Ukraine was only the beginning? What will the NATO alliance decide? Will they risk nuclear war?

Day by day and hour by hour, renowned political scientist Carlo Masala plays out what might happen when the President of the United States is called on to uphold NATO’s commitment to mutual defense, just as China’s maneuvers in Asia provide welcome distraction.

A timely, gripping, and thought-provoking scenario, in less than 130 pages, If Russia Wins shows how our world order is poised on a knife-edge. In the United States, we are accustomed to everything working out in our favor, in the end. But what if it doesn’t? What if Russia wins?

Praise for If Russia Wins:

“A curious little bestseller from Germany hopes to steel European resolve by laying out the disastrous ramifications of appeasement . . . In the end, If Russia Wins isn’t trying to entertain us. It’s trying to warn us, to get us to imagine what might happen a few years after Ukraine is forced to capitulate and surrender 20 percent of its territory. What lesson would that victory teach the Kremlin?”—Ron Charles, Washington Post

“If Russia Wins has been making the rounds in European capitals and helps explain Europe’s anxiety about NATO and the U.S. administration . . . NATO is built on decades of trust, so it would only take one time when it fails to act for everyone to question whether the alliance really works, and what it would take for the U.S., for instance, to rally to the side of a small Baltic country like Estonia.”—Bertrand Benoit and David Luhnow, Wall Street Journal

“Provocative . . . 119 pages of wartime reading . . . Masala’s scenario-as-question: What if Russia’s winning in Ukraine were only the beginning? The beginning of the enfeeblement of the United States?”—George F. Will, Washington Post

“Consider, Masala urges, that Ukraine is just the beginning of a long-game effort on the part of Vladimir Putin and his lieutenants to restore something of the old Soviet Union . . . A worrisome thought experiment that projects disaster if current geopolitical trends—notably U.S. isolationism—prevail.”—Kirkus Reviews

“A warning to the west . . . [If Russia Wins] is not a prediction but a provocation. It’s designed to start a conversation about what Russia could do next and whether the United States would come to Europe’s defense.”—BBC, The Global Story

“Chilling. . . at the heart of this short book lies a question that the wider public may have yet to fully grasp: how should the west—aging, indebted, polarized—respond when a hostile power intent on dismantling the post-1945 security framework probes its defenses?”—Financial Times (UK)

“Convincing . . . Carlo Masala’s warning is timely, given the growing uncertainty of America’s future involvement in Europe.”—Le Monde, Best Books of the Week (France)

“A worryingly resonant warning . . . A recent intervention suggests that the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, may have read Masala’s book: ‘Europe is more tested now than perhaps at any time in our lifetimes,’ he wrote in the Financial Times on Thursday. ‘We must systematically and massively raise the costs of Russia’s aggression’”—Times (UK)

“The thought of Russia achieving its aims in Ukraine is not one that most of us want to entertain. But forearmed is forewarned. . . . This fast-moving, dramatized simulation plunges readers into the thick of events, forcing us to confront a reconfigured globe.”—Sydney Morning Herald (Australia)

“A scenario that leans closely on current developments and continues on into a possible future . . . Masala has been making his case for years, but so far without the necessary political consequences . . . This short book should be read widely. The one hundred or so pages could be read by any politician in a single evening. It would be time well spent.”—Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Germany)

“Chilling . . . A succinct, high-impact warning of what happens when deterrence is eroded and alliances fail to act in an age of hybrid war. Masala’s scenario is about more than Estonia: it’s about respect for treaties, clarity of strategy, and the political courage to deter authoritarian revisionism. While speculative, the scenario should be treated not as distant fiction but as a stress test blueprint for alliance reform, defense readiness, and enduring transatlantic solidarity. The real possibility is not war in 2028—but a breakdown today that makes it inevitable tomorrow.”—Nordic Defence Review

“Masala and other security experts have been warning of such a situation for years . . . The way he narrows in on the most essential things, and his literary form are very effective and make the book a gripping read.”—Süddeutsche Zeitung (Germany)

“No wonder this dystopia is a bestseller . . . Its vision of the future is frighteningly plausible.”—De Volkskrant (Netherlands)

“An excellent, very short book . . . A chilling read but one we all need to take heed of.”—Lewis Goodall, LBC Radio (UK)

“A dark scenario about the future of Europe that is frighteningly realistic . . . Masala’s scenario sometimes reads like the raw material for a geopolitical thriller, yet without detracting from the book’s seriousness.”—Das Parlament (Germany)

“Masala is Germany’s most authoritative military analyst, teaching international politics at the University of the Bundeswehr, the federal army. . . The author calls on European countries to take the Russian threat very seriously. After all, remember, over the past five centuries, Moscow has invaded one of its neighbors on average every 20 to 25 years.”—Corriere della Sera (Italy)

“Brilliantly describes the mechanics of NATO’s collapse, due to a lack of effective strategy and without a genuine surge in democracy . . . sobering but powerful.”—Les Echos (France)